DALL' ECONOMIST............
THOUSANDS of protesters will gather in Rome on December 5th, not against the government’s policies, but against its leader. “No Berlusconi Day”, the latest protest born spontaneously on the internet, underlines the degree to which Italian politics is now defined by attitudes to one man: Silvio Berlusconi. Yet not even Italy’s attention-grabbing prime minister can any longer relish this. For No Berlusconi Day comes after a week in which the billionaire politician has been under relentless attack. This could even prove a turning-point. Italy’s most popular blogger, the comedian Beppe Grillo, thought so. “The countdown has already begun for Berlusconi,” he wrote. “Prepare the bubbly.”
The first blows landed on December 1st when tensions within the ruling majority burst into the open. An opposition newspaper, La Repubblica, posted a recording, made without his knowledge, of remarks by Gianfranco Fini, whose former National Alliance party is now part of Mr Berlusconi’s People of Freedom (PdL). The man who is notionally Mr Berlusconi’s closest ally was caught saying that the prime minister confuses “leadership with absolute monarchy” and “popular consent…with a sort of immunity from any other authority”. As Mr Fini’s spokesman noted, this was merely a franker version of criticism he had already aired. But it raises more starkly than ever a question: can he and his colleagues stick with Mr Berlusconi?
Also on December 1st, a Milan court asked Fininvest, the company at the heart of Mr Berlusconi’s business empire, for a €750m ($1.1 billion) bank guarantee. This was to show it could pay damages awarded to CIR, the holding company of Mr Berlusconi’s arch-rival, Carlo De Benedetti, in a case after the battle in the 1990s over the Mondadori publishing house. Fininvest’s lawyer was found to have bribed a judge to favour its bid. Mr Berlusconi’s company is appealing against the award, but if it fails, it may have to sell assets.
That is not Mr Berlusconi’s only money worry. His wife, Veronica Lario, who wants a legal separation, reportedly seeks annual maintenance of €43m. She broke with her 73-year-old husband after he attended the birthday party of a pretty 18-year-old, Noemi Letizia, in Naples. Neither that scandal nor one involving women allegedly paid to spend the night with him has gone away. Ms Letizia is now a model and Naples is dotted with giant posters of her in skimpy lingerie. Bookshops across Italy are selling a new book written by a call-girl, Patrizia D’Addario, recounting in explicit detail her alleged sexual encounter with the prime minister.
The sex scandals have taken only a limited toll on Mr Berlusconi’s popularity. But he is also a figure in two court cases that could do him more damage. In Milan judges are due to begin hearing a case in which he is accused of bribing a British lawyer, David Mills. This trial was halted in 2008 by a law (of Mr Berlusconi’s design), which gave the prime minister immunity but was overturned by Italy’s constitutional court in October. The new trial and the two appeals allowed under Italian law are unlikely to be over before the case is timed out by a statute of limitations. But Mr Mills has already been convicted of taking the bribe, and has lost his first appeal. His final appeal will be heard next year, by when the court trying Mr Berlusconi should reach an initial verdict. In a shameless bid to slow it down, his lawyers insist that he must be present at every hearing, only to cite reasons why he cannot be because of government business.
In the second case a former mobster, Gaspare Spatuzza, will say in court what he has already reportedly told prosecutors: that Mr Berlusconi did a deal with the Mafia around the time that he entered politics in 1994. Mr Fini was overheard calling this an “atomic bomb”. But its true explosive potential is unclear. Mr Berlusconi’s relationship with Sicily’s Cosa Nostra has long been the subject of conjecture. He once employed a Mafia boss. Marcello Dell’Utri, who set up Mr Berlusconi’s first party, Forza Italia, is appealing against a nine-year jail sentence for Mafia ties.
Yet Mr Spatuzza’s account is hearsay, based on what he claims to have been told by a more senior mafioso. According to leaks, Mr Berlusconi, who furiously denies any link, is accused of promising to relax the tough prison regime that has become the state’s most effective weapon against organised crime. It is still in use. And the Mafia is weaker than ever thanks to some spectacular police operations, the most recent of which were carried out after Mr Berlusconi’s return to office last year.
Indeed, he might plausibly argue that Mr Spatuzza’s claims reflect a vendetta by Cosa Nostra, aimed at a politician it wrongly assumed would do its bidding. Nor is this the only card Mr Berlusconi has. Mr Fini has for months puzzled his followers by arguing for a conspicuously progressive form of conservatism. The disclosure of his true feelings about Mr Berlusconi may leave him isolated, even vulnerable.
Moreover, if pressure from outside becomes intolerable, the prime minister has a final option: to appeal over the heads of critics and enemies alike to voters, arguing that he is the victim of an unholy alliance of left-wing judges, right-wing mavericks and the Mafia. Mr Berlusconi may be looking at a dwindling stack of chips. But he has a joker up his sleeve.
